The Great American Brain Drain
Uncertainty around Trump’s economic policies, fear around his social policies, and the DOGE’s shredding of American institutions has kicked off a massive exodus of American talent never before seen in the country. This is only the beginning. Passport office lines extend around the block. American scientists, actors, businesses, and students are indicating they will leave. The land of opportunity is now lost.
What we’ll see over the next year is a steady departure of people from the US, not unlike the departures from Germany in the 1930s. Worse, these people are some of the best and brightest — the wealthy, the talented, the knowledgeable. This loss of talent bodes poorly for the competitive future of America, but it may prove even worse for those who remain or are unable to leave. Here’s how that will play out.
Departures
Responding to a poll in Nature, the world’s most respected scientific journal, 75% of scientists indicated they are currently applying for or planning to find roles overseas. While that’s bad for science, it’s even worse for the future. Many of those respondents were post-graduate and PhD students, meaning this will have repercussions for decades. The nations benefitting from those relocations will dominate the scientific progress of the next century. The Week calls this a “fire sale for American academics” in what could represent a lost generation.
The wealthy are also leaving. The Financial Times in London reports that US applications for UK citizenship have risen 40%, the highest rate ever experienced. (The irony of former colonists applying to return to the monarchy).
The Guardian reports the quiet departure of American actors. Courtney Love, Ellen DeGeneres and Portia de Rossi, Rosie O’Donnell. Many of the early departures are due to deep concerns over attitudes toward LGBTQ+ identities.
Learning from history
There is a remarkable precedent for this. Starting in 1933, political turbulence in Germany drove some of their greatest scientists out, scientists like Albert Einstein, Enrico Fermi, James Franck, and Leo Szilard. James Franck was the first to leave in 1933 in protest of the (eerily similar) German Law for the Restoration of the Professional Civil Service which purged academia and government agencies. After World War II, America’s Operation Paperclip enticed 1,600 of Germany’s top scientists to emigrate and join US led scientific missions, most famous among them Wernher von Braun. Those same scientists then became the resources that drove American progress, inventing nuclear energy, rocketry, space travel, and more.
We’re seeing history repeat itself. Similar to 1933, the tumult is taking place at the Department of Energy, including at the National Nuclear Security Administration. Further cuts are happening in the Department of Agriculture, National Institutes of Health, Food and Drug Administration, Centers for Disease Control, and the Small Business Association. All of those roles have comparable vacancies overseas, with other nations vying to capture this talent.
Yes, many of those purges have been blocked, with people going back to work, but we know that uncertainty will cause them to brush up on their resumes and start looking.
Why uncertainty sparks exodus
A few years ago, I worked for a firm that wanted to downsize. Since everyone in the department had positive performance reviews, it was illegal to let them go without cause. (Yes, I live in New Zealand, where we have legal protections against firing, unlike the US). To get around this, the firm asked us each to submit our CV, to apply for our own job.
Sound familiar? That’s similar to what Musk has done to federal employees.
It was humiliating. Who is more qualified to do your own work than you? But worse than the psychological feelings were the practical ones. Suddenly everyone had taken a look at their qualifications and compared them to the market. To hedge our bets, we’d all sent our feelers out to recruiters. After that one person got cut (someone voluntarily left to take one for the team) we were still getting calls from recruiters.
Six months later, not one of us worked for that company. Creating a sense of insecurity decimated the department.
The same thing is happening in America right now, to 340 million people.
No one loves chaos
People want stability. In order to raise a family, progress a career, and feel the sense of an advancing economy, people want need to feel safe. If they see changes, they want to know those changes are well thought out, integrated over time, and leading toward something better.
Americans are getting the opposite.
Elon Musk and Donald Trump are working at a fever pitch to make changes with very little, if any, planning. As they cut government departments, then see them restored, then cut them again, they create the instability that is the hallmark of senior talent departures. Even if those jobs are retained, even if the courts step in, the people in them will be looking for a way out.
And that’s just the professionals. The fear among the populace is rising, with people seeing a departure less as an option and more as an escape. Between the disappearances, the American citizens detained in the seemingly random crackdown on immigrants, and the outright hostility to anyone LGBTQ+, Americans are afraid.
If you have relatives in the US, they’re no doubt telling you what is not reported in the news. The long lines at passport offices. The increased rates of hostility. The unabashed racial slurs. The protests and heated debates.
America is boiling. The smart frogs are leaving the pot.
Cue Operation Paperclip 2
Whether their departures result from DOGE firings, department purges, or indignant resignations, there are some impeccable minds on the market. People like NASA’s Chief Scientist Katherine Calvin and Chief Technologist AC Charania. Traci DiMartini, Head of Human Resources at the Internal Revenue Service, who has already said she will not return to civil service. Anne Marshall, former Amazon engineer who resigned as director of United States Digital Service.
As we enter into the next industrial revolution of clean electrification, decarbonization and cellular agriculture, America’s failure to retain its top scientists grants a massive opportunity to the countries willing to snap them up.
And it isn’t just the government agencies getting fired. As Americans get fed up with chaos in the markets, threats of physical violence in the streets, and the hopelessness of ever getting viable health care, their attention will turn, as mine did, overseas.
This is a prime time to pick up those resources, and this is only the beginning.
Based on historical precedent, the first to leave America will be some of the most valuable. Nobel Prize winners. Highly experienced executives who have led successful companies or departments. People with advanced degrees from some of the world’s best schools, schools like Caltech, MIT, and Penn State. People who work well and cannot stomach seeing that fall apart.
These people will bring their experience, but they’ll also bring their income. Even poor Americans are wealthy by most international standards. When they sell their homes, pack up their savings, America will see a departure of not just people but a vast transfer of wealth.
Get out
If this is you, and you’re planning on leaving America, you’re not alone. You have options. If you’re young, healthy, and don’t have a criminal record, look at emigration to other countries. If you have a steady role in the gig economy, look for two year digital nomad visas in South Korea, China, or Europe.
If none of these apply to you, you still have options. Most countries offer long-term travel visas to Americans, six months or more. Go to your country of choice, meet recruiters, attend industry events, make friends, find a new job, and scout out neighbourhoods. Then apply for a work visa.
If you’re thinking of moving to New Zealand, reach out to the folks at vbi.nz.
The world is waiting for you.